Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Keys to the White House index model
The Keys to the White House model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.