The Vox.Com model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.9%.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Vox.Com model.
The Vox.Com model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.