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Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Vox.Com model


The Vox.Com model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single models often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Vox.Com model.

The Vox.Com model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Vox.Com model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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