The Electoral-cycle model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 50.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.