Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Lockerbie model

The Lockerbie model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they can incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.

The Lockerbie model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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