Results of a new poll conducted by Susquehanna were released. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Susquehanna poll results
According to the results, 47.0% of interviewees indicated that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 31 to August 4. A total of 772 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-3.5 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 55.2%. Compared to her numbers in the Susquehanna poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.