Primary model: Trump with small lead

The Primary model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Primary model Trump's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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