Primary model: Trump with small lead
The Primary model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.
The Primary model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.