Primary model: Trump with small lead
The Primary model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 52.5%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 50.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.
The Primary model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Primary model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.