Primary model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Primary model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 47.5% for Clinton, and 52.5% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, you should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Primary model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 6.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Primary model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.