PPP (D) poll in Pennsylvania: Trump trails by a slim margin
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
Of those who replied, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 29 to July 31, among a random sample of 1505 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-2.5 points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently achieves 55.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. This value is 3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, the PollyVote is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.