Results of a new poll conducted by Suffolk University were released. The poll asked participants from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 25 to July 27 with 500 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania has Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Suffolk University poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.