Ohio: Clinton tied with Trump in latest PPP (D) poll
PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically gained similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that businessman Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton have identical levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from July 22 to July 24 among 1334 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 1.7 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.0% and Trump 48.0% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 2 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is significant.