New Vox.Com model: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck
The Vox.Com model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 49.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 50.9%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results vs. other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Vox.Com model.
The Vox.Com model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Vox.Com model.