The Lockerbie model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 49.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.