New Lockerbie model: Clinton and Trump in a tossup
The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.