New Lockerbie model: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

The Lockerbie model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 50.4% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 49.6%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lockerbie model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lockerbie model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.