New Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck
The Keys to the White House model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 51.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.5%.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. In comparison to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Clinton's index model average is 2.2 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.