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New Electoral-cycle model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie


The Electoral-cycle model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 48.6% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.4%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Electoral-cycle model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Electoral-cycle model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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