Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead

The Leading indicators model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points worse.

The Leading indicators model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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