Leading indicators model: Clinton with small lead
The Leading indicators model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Leading indicators model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.