Leading indicators model: Clinton is in the lead

The Leading indicators model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Leading indicators model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.9 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Leading indicators model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.