The Time-for-change model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
Trump is currently at 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.
The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.