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Latest Time-for-change model: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck


The Time-for-change model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Time-for-change model.

The Time-for-change model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Time-for-change model for Trump are thus 4.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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