Latest Time-for-change model: Clinton and Trump in a virtual tie
The Time-for-change model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.6% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.4%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Time-for-change model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Time-for-change model.