Latest Lockerbie model: Clinton and Trump in a tossup

The Lockerbie model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 49.2%. Relative to numbers in the Lockerbie model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lockerbie model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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