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Latest Keys to the White House index model: Trump and Clinton in a virtual tie


The Keys to the White House model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.5% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.5%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, you should rely on combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Keys to the White House index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Keys to the White House model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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