Latest Electoral-cycle model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied

The Electoral-cycle model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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