Latest Electoral-cycle model: Trump and Clinton virtually tied
The Electoral-cycle model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Electoral-cycle model Trump's econometric model average is 0.6 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 4.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Electoral-cycle model.