Latest Big-issue index model: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat
The Big-issue model enters the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, one should consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Compared to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.