Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump receiving 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 1 percentage point better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
The Jérôme & Jérôme model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.