Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump

The Jérôme & Jérôme model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton and Trump will each garner 50% of the two-party vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they can include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. When compared to the average forecast of other models Clinton performed 1 percentage point better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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