Jérôme & Jérôme model: Clinton tied with Trump
The Jérôme & Jérôme model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump winning 50% of the two-party vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 49.2%. Compared to numbers in the Jérôme & Jérôme model Clinton's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse. When compared to the average forecast of other models, which currently predicts Clinton to gain 49.2%, Clinton performed 1 percentage point better in the Jérôme & Jérôme model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jérôme & Jérôme model. Clinton has 3.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.