Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin

The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other index models

Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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