Issues and Leaders model: Trump trails by a small margin
The Issues and Leaders model enters the index models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton is currently at 53.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.