Issues and Leaders model: Clinton with small lead

The Issues and Leaders model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Compared to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.6 percentage points higher.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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