Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 52.1% for Clinton, and 47.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, you should consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.7%. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 1.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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