Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 52.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.9%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, we recommend to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results vs. other index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.7% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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