Issue-index model: Trump trails by a moderate margin
The Issue-index model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 55.1% for Clinton, and 44.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, the recommended strategy consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Issue-index index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.