Issue-index model: Clinton with comfortable lead

The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 55.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 44.9%.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be interpreted with caution, because they can include substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.7%. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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