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Issue-index model: Clinton with comfortable lead


The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton, and 44.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual index model. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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