Issue-index model: Clinton with comfortable lead
The Issue-index model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.1% for Clinton, and 44.9% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of an individual index model. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
Clinton currently achieves 53.8% of the two-party vote in an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 1.4 percentage points lower.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issue-index model for Clinton are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.