Fiscal model model: Trump with small lead
The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Fiscal model model Trump's econometric model average is 1 percentage point worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.