The Fiscal model model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.2% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 51.8%.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate substantial biases. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.
The Fiscal model model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.