Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin
The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.