Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Fiscal model model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the Fiscal model model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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