Fiscal model model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The Fiscal model model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the Fiscal model model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fiscal model model for Trump are thus 5.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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