Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 56.0%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 50.9% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points worse.

The Fair model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Fair model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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