Fair model: Trump with clear lead

The Fair model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump is currently at 50.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. Relative to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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