Fair model: Trump with clear lead
The Fair model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 44.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 56.0%.
Putting the results in context
Single models often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. Compared to numbers in the Fair model Trump's econometric model average is 5.2 percentage points worse.
The Fair model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.