Fair model: Clinton trails by a clear margin
The Fair model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 44.0% for Clinton, and 56.0% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, because they can incorporate substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results vs. other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Trump at 50.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.2 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Fair model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Fair model for Trump are thus 9.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.