DeSart model: Trump with small lead
The DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 51.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.6% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.