DeSart model: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.9%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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