DeSart model: Clinton trails by a small margin

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.1% for Clinton, and 51.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 1 percentage point lower than respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 46.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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