Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Big-issue index model

The Big-issue model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results in comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points better.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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