Dead heat between Trump and Clinton in latest Big-issue index model
The Big-issue model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.9%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single index model. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice is to consult combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results in comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. In comparison to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.6 percentage points better.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Big-issue model for Clinton are thus 2.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.