Clinton and Trump virtually tied in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.1% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 49.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote. The results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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