Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in new Lewis-Beck & Tien model

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 51.1% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 49.2% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the Lewis-Beck & Tien model Clinton's econometric model average is 2 percentage points lower.

The Lewis-Beck & Tien model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the Lewis-Beck & Tien model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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